Is the Duck Already Dead?

FlexUp "What's Your Take?", Ep. 1:

To balance out increased renewables penetration and flatten out the “Duck Curve” , Germany needs to significantly build out its large scale power storage fleet, from around 2 GW today. But Montel recently reported that Germany’s four TSOs already have 161 GW (!) of battery storage capacity in their combined connection request pipeline. Presumably, additional storage projects are also in DSO queues, further boosting planned capacity additions. So, will this “tsunami of BESS” flatten the duck curve sooner than expected? Is the duck already dead?

Consider this: While 161+ GW sounds substantial, roughly equal to Germany's 170GW installed renewables capacity, many queued projects will not reach operational status. Other BESS markets, like UK and California, see only a fraction of queued projects completed. Also, Germany added 17GW of additional renewables annually, so “the duck keeps growing”…

What’s Your Take?

• Did the reported number of 161GW in the TSO queues surprise you as high?

• Will this BESS pipeline smoothen out daily prices, even in summer, as early as 2026…? What about by 28’? ‘30? ‘35? ‘40??…

• Or, will limited BESS project completions and continued solar installations growth keep daily price curves—and thus BESS time-shifting value—alive?

Join the conversation! Comment on LinkedIn to share your perspective…