Who should use the Route-to-Market Comparison Dashboard?
BESS operators, investors, and financing banks who need more transparency on the range of revenue outcomes of their BESS. The dashboard enables them to understand their risk/reward trade-offs, given different BESS specs, price forecasts, dispatch/trading algo’s, and BESS Route-to-Market revenue splits, such as tolls, floors, profit shares, and indexes.

Why use the Route-to-Market Comparison Dashboard?
Many investors currently rely on static, deterministic revenue forecasts, often in spreadsheets. These overlook the full range of potential market outcomes and the real optionality / trading flexibility of BESS, even though these aspects are essential to the investment and lending cases for BESS.

Contrary to a deterministic approach based on black-box forecasts, the dashboard provides up-to-date, stochastic revenue forecasts, clear comparisons of route-to-market options, and a transparent view of risks and opportunities. This enables smarter and more informed decision-making. based on a richer picture of the revenue line in the project financial model. We hope this will lead to better investment, contracting, and asset management decisions.

How does the Route-to-Market Comparison Dashboard work?
The dashboard generates a cumulative probability curve of annual revenue per MW based on inputs, such as BESS specifications, stochastic market price forecasts, dispatch/trading strategies, and Route-to-Market contract terms. It visualizes the range of potential outcomes, enabling you to evaluate revenue under uncertainty and compare various contract offers with clarity.

Why is this better than looking at a single deterministic forecast with some sensitivities in my spreadsheet?
The dashboard compares multiple route-to-market contract offers in a single graph, capturing precise probabilities for potential outcomes. This approach avoids underestimating upside potential or overestimating downside risks, an error which is common in static models of assets with high real option value, providing a deeper understanding of revenue drivers. 

As FlexUp develops this tool further in the coming months, it will also help you avoid relying solely on a black-box revenue forecast based on a single consultant’s fundamental market model. Rather, by combining different forecasters’ inputs, you will be able to assess the differences between forecasts and easily reach a more accurate, consensus-forecast. Email us to get early access to the collaborative forecasting feature.

How does the dashboard help assess the impact of leverage?
While the dashboard doesn’t directly evaluate project leverage, it provides critical inputs like probabilistic revenue forecasts, based on different Route-to-Market contract terms. These insights help assess appropriate leverage levels and highlight the risks of over-leverage, with different route-to-market contracts and market uncertainty.

Does the tool allow comparison of multiple contract structures (e.g., tolling, floor + profit share) and their impact on projected revenues?
Yes, the dashboard evaluates different contract structures in a single graph, showing their effects on net revenue for BESS operators after the Route-to-Market provider’s share of trading proceeds.

What is the FlexUp Revenue forecast?
It’s a stochastic estimate of expected revenues and variability, currently based on FlexUp’s internal market understanding. FlexUp is collaborating with leading price-forecast providers to enable you to compare forecasts, evaluate their historical accuracy, and develop "consensus" forecasts quickly and easily.

What is the FlexUp dispatch algorithm?
The current algorithm is currently a temporary solution, but FlexUp is working with Route-to-Market providers to incorporate their trading results into the FlexUp dashboard. This will allow for apples-to-apples comparisons of algorithms, indexes, and contract terms, ensuring BESS operators gain a clearer view of expected revenues. Email us to get early access to the “Algo Comparison” feature.

Can I input my own price forecast for a customized comparison?
Soon, the tool will allow users to upload custom price forecasts, compare them with others, convert them into revenue projections using different Algo’s, and apply different Route-to-Market offers. Email us to get early access to the “Upload Custom Forecast” feature.

Is it possible to use a specific dispatch or trading algorithm for tailored evaluations?
Not yet, but FlexUp is actively integrating trading results from Route-to-Market providers for transparent comparisons. Future updates will allow users to compare combinations of price forecasts, algorithms, and contract terms. Email us to learn more about the upcoming “Real-time RtM offer comparison” feature.

Can I connect to this real-time revenue forecast directly from my investment case spreadsheet?
This feature is under development. Soon, the dashboard will integrate with spreadsheets like Google Sheets and Excel 365 via a dedicated FlexUp spreadsheet function for real-time updates to your revenue forecasts. Email us for early access to the “Spreadsheet Integration” feature.

Does the tool benchmark historical revenues?
Currently, the dashboard only shows the Flexup Revenue Forecasts for the year ahead. Going forward, we aim to enable historical data, combined with different algos and Route-to-market contracts, providing a stable framework for apples-to-apples comparison of backtests. Email us to get early access to the “Comparable Algo Backtest” feature.

Can the tool integrate external systems?
Currently the dashboard is only available as a web-based graphical interface. We are working on integrations with spreadsheets and python. Please Email us to get early access to the “API, Python, and other Integrations” feature.

Is the dashboard scalable for large portfolios?
Currently the dashboard is only available for single, stand-alone BESS sites. We are evaluating expanding the dashboard to e.g. co-located PV-BESS sites, other flex assets (e.g. biogas generators, thermal storage, demand response). Email us to get early access to the “Colocated BESS” feature.

Where can I learn more about the FlexUp Revenue Nexus development roadmap?
Email us with your specific requirements, and we’ll provide details on upcoming features and opportunities for collaboration!