Your BESS Revenue Forecast is Probably Wrong!

FlexUp “What’s your take?”, Ep. 2:

As Yogi Berra said: “It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” … especially for battery energy storage systems (BESS) in Germany! Factors like market volatility, regulatory changes, and the speed of BESS and solar buildouts create significant uncertainty around future revenue streams.

Historical data, often the backbone of these models, can’t fully account for future volatility. For example, ancillary service market revenues may fluctuate dramatically, undermining forecasts. Deterministic models oversimplify outcomes, while stochastic methods, which consider a range of possible futures, remain underused.

Germany’s growing BESS sector, with its ambitious BESS pipeline and high political uncertainty, offers potentially outsized challenges to operators’ expected investment returns.

What’s your take? How confident are you in your BESS revenue forecast?